Anyone who has preordered a big video game knows the feeling. You pay weeks early and hope the game lives up to its trailers. Millions of fans are doing that with Grand Theft Auto VI, or GTA 6, from Take-Two Interactive (TTWO).
I have played every Grand Theft Auto game, so I understand the pull. Last month, I wrote that some workers were saving paid leave for the GTA 6 launch. Buzz like that usually makes companies shout.
Take-Two, which owns Rockstar Games and the NBA 2K series, chose to whisper instead. The company told investors on Monday, November 9, 2026, that GTA 6 preorders are “tracking far in excess of our initial expectations.”
StoneX analyst Mike Hickey asked what was driving that demand. CEO Strauss Zelnick said the glowing press made him “nervous even saying those words.” He added, “we still aren’t ready to declare victory.”
Also read: GTA 6 sick days could cost employers as Take-Two cashes in
Take-Two also kept its fiscal 2027 net bookings forecast at $8 billion to $8.2 billion, according to its earnings release. Net bookings measure the value of games and in-game content the company sold. “We tend to avoid claiming success before it occurs,” Zelnick said, Reuters reported.
Fans are paying top dollar before launch
Fans aren’t nearly as cautious. Players had placed about 7.71 million digital preorders worldwide as of Tuesday, November 3, Reuters reported, citing Sensor Tower.
At the end of August, nearly 90% of preorders were for the $99.99 Ultimate Edition, according to the same data. The standard copy costs $79.99. If that mix held, digital preorders total roughly $750 million, by my math.
Most fans never see this part. Take-Two counts the $20 Ultimate upgrade as recurrent consumer spending, or RCS. CFO Lainie Goldstein told Roth analyst Eric Handler that the add-on content “can be also purchased separately,” so it is “allocated to RCS.”
That label is important. Take-Two’s release describes RCS as money “generated from ongoing consumer engagement,” and it made up 81% of net bookings last quarter. Goldstein expects RCS to grow about 12% in the holiday quarter, driven partly by Ultimate Edition sales.
So part of that growth will be upgrade money paid up front, not months of play. Anyone reading it as proof of lasting engagement should look twice.
Take-Two’s forecast leaves room for a surprise
Start with the holiday quarter. Take-Two expects $3.35 billion to $3.5 billion in net bookings for October through December, according to the release.
The full-year target tells a quieter story. Take-Two booked about $3 billion in the first half of its fiscal year, as its release shows. Subtract that and the holiday forecast, and only about $1.5 billion to $1.9 billion is left for January through March.
Take-Two just booked $1.6 billion in a quarter without GTA 6. The forecast appears to assume the new game adds little once the holidays pass. That looks less like a prediction and more like a floor.
NBA 2K27 gives Take-Two some reason for care. The basketball game fell short of Take-Two’s forecast, Zelnick said.
Goldstein said NBA 2K drove a 9% drop in recurring spending, though President Karl Slatoff is “pretty confident” of a rebound.
What Take-Two is holding back, then, is upside it hasn’t banked yet. It hasn’t shared its own preorder count, and its forecast doesn’t separate GTA 6 from its other games. Zelnick told Hickey he hopes the wait for a victory lap won’t be long.
More Take-Two:
- Rockstar faces a fake-leak problem it can’t fully stop
- GTA 6 sick days could cost employers as Take-Two cashes in
- GTA 6 sneakers will reportedly cost more than the game
Wall Street isn’t celebrating yet either
Take-Two shares rose 4% after the market closed on Monday. The longer view is cooler. As of Friday, November 6, 2026, the stock was down about 16% over the past year, StockAnalysis data show.
Take-Two’s market value sat near $40 billion. The stock traded at about 26 times expected earnings, meaning investors paid about $26 for every $1 of profit analysts expect. Months of what Take-Two calls “unprecedented” preorders haven’t been priced in as a win.
Analysts are more upbeat. The 28 analysts tracked by StockAnalysis give Take-Two a consensus Strong Buy rating, with an average price target of $283.96. That target sits roughly a third above the November 6 close.
What to watch next:
- Launch week brings the first real signal. GTA 6 arrives Thursday, November 19, 2026, and management said it will share details “as soon as we have some experience post-launch.”
- The holiday quarter report puts numbers on paper. It will test the forecast.
- Fiscal 2028 is the next fight. Zelnick declined to give guidance for it when TD Cowen’s Doug Creutz asked.
Preorders show excitement, not staying power
Zelnick’s caution says something bigger about gaming. The real money now comes after the first sale. The Grand Theft Auto series was still among Take-Two’s largest contributors last quarter, the release shows, 13 years after GTA V arrived.
Preorders answer only half the question. They show how many people want GTA 6 on day one. They can’t show who will still be spending on it years from now.
Fans have already declared victory with their wallets. When Take-Two reports its holiday quarter in the new year, investors will learn whether Zelnick’s caution was modesty or a warning.
