There is a specific kind of conviction that gets tested when a stock falls sharply on earnings. Most analysts either defend their prior call quietly or quietly revise it lower. Every so often, one does neither.
One of Wall Street‘s most closely watched AI infrastructure names just delivered that kind of moment. And the analyst who stepped up afterward had something specific to say about why the selloff may have missed the point entirely.
What Wells Fargo changed on CoreWeave
Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin raised his price target on CoreWeave to $155 from $135 on May 8, maintaining an Overweight rating. The move came a day after CoreWeave’s Q1 2026 earnings report delivered a revenue beat but a softer-than-expected Q2 guide that sent the stock sharply lower.
Turrin’s note was direct about the tension. “While 1Q results were clean, CRWV‘s lower-than-expected 2Q guide and reit FY guide complicate the ROY setup putting significant weighting on 2H results. CRWV continues to execute, however, now with $100B backlog and 1GW+ active capacity,” he said.
The prior Wells Fargo target was $135, raised from $125 the week before earnings when Turrin argued CoreWeave’s $63.9 billion in Q1 deal signings and OpenAI delivery timeline updates would be the key catalysts to watch, according to CNBC.
CoreWeave Q1 results and the Q2 miss that rattled markets
CoreWeave reported Q1 2026 revenue of $2.078 billion, beating the LSEG consensus of $2.013 billion. On the bottom line, the company posted an adjusted loss of $1.11 per share versus the $0.87 loss expected, a miss driven by surging infrastructure costs, according to CNBC.
The problem was Q2 guidance. CoreWeave guided for $2.45 billion to $2.60 billion in Q2 revenue. The midpoint of $2.53 billion trailed the $2.69 billion LSEG consensus. The company also maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $12 billion to $13 billion rather than raising it, which left investors concerned about back-half weighting, CNBC noted.
CEO Mike Intrator pushed back on the near-term framing. “I always think that everyone is looking at the stock and focusing on the trees and missing the forest,” he told CNBC. “The forest is, there’s this seismic level change occurring in our economy and being driven by these incredible technology companies that are dependent upon the infrastructure.”
He also declared: “We have reached hyperscale,” citing 10 clients now committed to spending at least $1 billion on CoreWeave products.
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Why Wells Fargo is looking past the Q2 miss
Wells Fargo’s decision to raise the target after the Q2 guide miss is a statement about what it thinks matters more. The bank is focused on the $99.4 billion revenue backlog, the 3.5 gigawatts of total contracted power, and the company’s stated ambition to exceed $30 billion in annualized revenue by end of 2027.
In that framework, a softer Q2 guide is a timing issue rather than a structural problem. The backlog has an average five-year duration, meaning the revenue is contracted and waiting to be recognized. Turrin’s note flags the risk clearly: significant weighting now falls on the second half of 2026. CoreWeave’s own guidance shows the math — Q2 operating income guided at $30 million to $90 million, implying the bulk of the $900 million to $1.1 billion full-year target comes in the second half, according to CoreWeave IR.
Key figures from CoreWeave’s Q1 2026 earnings and analyst reactions:
- Wells Fargo price target: $155, raised from $135, Overweight maintained, analyst Michael Turrin, May 8, according to Seeking Alpha
- Q1 2026 revenue: $2.078 billion, beating $2.013 billion consensus; Q2 guide midpoint $2.53 billion vs $2.69 billion consensus, according to CNBC
- Revenue backlog: $99.4 billion with average five-year contract duration; 10 clients committed to $1B+ in spending, CNBC confirmed
- Total contracted power: 3.5 gigawatts; active capacity: 1GW+; target 1.7GW online by year-end, according to CoreWeave IR
- Annualized revenue target: exceeding $30 billion by end of 2027, CoreWeave IR confirmed
- Debt raised in Q1: $8.5 billion in new debt; total debt approximately $25 billion, CNBC noted
- Nvidia investment: purchased an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave shares during Q1, CNBC confirmed
- Other analyst targets post-earnings: Jefferies Buy $160, Truist Hold raised to $131 from $85, median Street target $125, according to Stock Analysis
The balance sheet risk the market is pricing in
Bulls on CoreWeave focus on the backlog and the AI demand story. Bears focus on what it costs to capture that demand. CoreWeave closed Q1 with approximately $25 billion in total debt after raising $8.5 billion in new financing during the quarter, CNBC noted. Capital expenditure guidance for Q2 alone is $7 billion to $9 billion.
Nvidia’s continued commitment offers some reassurance. The chipmaker purchased an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave shares during Q1, signaling confidence in the company’s trajectory and deepening its access to GPU supply. But Nvidia’s backing does not change the core tension: a company spending far more than it earns, racing to build capacity ahead of demand.
Wells Fargo is betting the demand arrives on schedule and the second-half operating income ramp materializes. At $155, the bank is saying the risk-reward remains attractive even with that uncertainty in play. The Street’s median target of $125 says not everyone agrees.
Related: Bank of America revamps Nvidia-backed CoreWeave and Nebius stocks
