For four years, the majority of American homeowners have been sitting tight. The historically low mortgage rates they locked in during the pandemic gave them every reason to stay put rather than trade up, downsize, or relocate.
New data suggests that pattern is actually getting more pronounced, not less. A growing share of homeowners now say they will not consider moving unless mortgage rates fall well below where they currently sit. And the rate level they require has climbed sharply from where it was just two years ago, deepening a lock-in effect that is now four years old and showing no signs of easing.
In the May 2026 edition of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast monthly housing market update, chief investment officer Dave Meyer addressed that data directly and detailed exactly what it would take for mortgage rates to drop to the level homeowners say they need, a forecast that puts a decision in front of anyone still waiting for rate relief.
“We need to see inflation get really low below 2%,” Meyer said. “It’s moving in the other direction. We need to see a big recession. No one really wants that. Or we would need to see quantitative easing.”
Homeowners’ mortgage rate stance is shaping housing market
A recent Point survey, cited by Meyer in his May update, captured how dramatically homeowner behavior has hardened over the past two years. According to the survey, 48% of homeowners did not consider moving in the past 12 months, up from 41% two years ago. The rate threshold homeowners say they would need before considering a move has also climbed sharply, with 83% now saying they would need mortgage rates below 5%, compared with 64% in 2024.
Meyer said the climbing threshold reflects broader economic strain on homeowners, not just their relationship to mortgage rates.
“I think that’s a reflection of just things getting more expensive, inflation is going up across the economy,” Meyer said. “So people are saying, ‘I’m getting stretched elsewhere. So for me to give up this amazing rate I have or the equity I have in this home or whatever, I need rates to really come down.'”
That broader strain shows up in how homeowners now describe the reasons they are not moving. Mortgage rates remain the top reason cited at about 45%, but the share of homeowners pointing to life circumstances such as concerns about their own jobs, household income, or the broader economy has climbed toward 30%. The lock-in, in other words, is no longer purely a rate problem.
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Meyer characterized the survey as evidence that the lock-in effect, which began when rates spiked in 2022, is now entrenched in a way that makes a quick reversal unlikely. He also pointed to the broader implication of those numbers. In his view, homeowner behavior at this scale is reshaping where the housing market goes from here.
“It could shape the housing market for years to come,” Meyer said.
That turns what may have looked like a temporary hold for individual homeowners, including the real estate investors who locked in similarly favorable rates, into a structural decision. Continuing to wait for the rate conditions Meyer described as years away is not viable for those hoping to pivot now.
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What the new forecast could mean for homeowners
For homeowners holding out for the rate relief Meyer described as unlikely, his forecast effectively reframes the wait as an active decision. The conditions he laid out, including inflation falling below 2%, a big recession, or a return to quantitative easing, are not on the immediate horizon, and that has reshaped how long the lock-in period could plausibly last.
Meyer has been describing the broader environment as a “great stall” for several years now, a label that captures how slowly the housing market has been moving and how unlikely any sharp reversal looks. The Point survey data, in his view, only reinforces that framing.
“This slow housing market could be here to stay,” Meyer said.
For homeowners, the implication is direct. Waiting for rates to fall back below 5%, the threshold most homeowners say they would need before moving, is not a near-term strategy, but more likely a multi-year hold. In the meantime, life circumstances continue to change, equity gains have largely plateaued, and the bar homeowners are waiting for has been moving further out of reach.
That leaves most homeowners with two real choices. One is to adjust the expectations that have anchored the wait, lowering the rate, price, or property thresholds and moving forward under conditions different from what was originally planned. The other choice is to accept that the desired move is not on the horizon and stay put indefinitely.
What Meyer’s forecast has effectively closed off is the assumption that sub-5% rates will return soon enough to matter for active moving plans. The same dynamic plays out for real estate investors who now face a parallel choice about whether to refinance, sell, or expand their portfolios at current rate levels.
“This is what we got everyone,” Meyer said. “It’s not great. I wish the housing market would pick up. I wish affordability got better. But I think as investors, we just need to accept reality.”
Key takeaways for homeowners and real estate investors
- Lock-in effect is deepening four years in: According to a recent Point survey cited in Meyer’s May update, 48% of homeowners did not consider moving in the past 12 months, up from 41% two years ago. The trend is showing up among real estate investors as well, many of whom locked in similarly favorable rates in the early 2020s.
- Rate threshold has climbed sharply: About 83% of homeowners now say they would need mortgage rates below 5% to consider moving, up from 64% in 2024, suggesting the bar for unlocking moves is rising rather than falling.
- Meyer’s three-condition forecast for rate relief: Mortgage rates falling below 5% would require inflation dropping below 2%, a deep recession, or quantitative easing. Meyer said none of those conditions are likely in the current environment.
- Lock-in is no longer purely a rate problem: Mortgage rates remain the top reason cited for not moving at about 45%, but the share of homeowners pointing to life circumstances such as job concerns, household income, or the broader economy has climbed toward 30%.
- Major decision facing homeowners and investors: Adjust expectations on rate, price, or property and move forward under current conditions, or accept that the desired move is not on the horizon and stay put indefinitely. Meyer has consistently advised taking what the market is offering rather than holding out for what it is not.
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