Exxon Mobil will report first-quarter earnings on Friday, May 1, before the market opens, giving investors a fresh look at how one of the world’s largest energy companies handled a volatile start to the year.
The company said its press release will be available at 5:30 a.m. CST, with CEO Darren Woods, CFO Neil Hansen, and Investor Relations lead Jim Chapman set to review the results on a call at 8:30 a.m. CST.
The setup appears favorable at first glance because crude prices moved sharply higher during the quarter. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Brent crude began the year at $61 per barrel and finished the first quarter at $118 per barrel, marking the largest inflation-adjusted quarterly increase in data going back to 1988.
That price move would typically be a major tailwind for Exxon’s upstream business, which produces oil and natural gas worldwide. Exxon told investors in an April filing that changes in liquids prices could lift first-quarter earnings by $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion compared with the fourth quarter, while gas prices could add another $200 million to $600 million.
Exxon flagged several offsets before the report
The risk for investors is that higher oil prices are only one part of the earnings story. Exxon’s own pre-earnings update warned that the first quarter includes market, planned, seasonal, and Middle East-related factors that could make the headline results harder to read.
The largest swing item appears to be timing effects tied to trading and inventory accounting. Exxon estimated that timing effects could reduce first-quarter earnings by $4.1 billion to $3.3 billion, mostly in its Energy Products segment.
Exxon explained that physical shipments of hydrocarbons and finished products are often hedged with financial derivatives. At the end of each quarter, accounting standards require open derivatives to be marked to current prices. At the same time, the related physical shipments are reflected in earnings only when the transaction is completed.
That accounting mismatch can create a drag when prices rise quickly. Exxon said timing effects are typically negative in periods of rising prices and positive in periods of falling prices, while noting that these trading and optimization activities have consistently delivered positive earnings excluding timing impacts.
Middle East disruptions add another challenge for Exxon
Exxon also faces a production and refining issue tied to the same geopolitical tensions that helped lift oil prices. The EIA said crude and petroleum product prices increased significantly in the first quarter, after military action in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping activity.
The company said upstream assets in Qatar and the UAE, which accounted for about 20% of its 2025 global oil-equivalent production, were affected by production disruptions beginning in early March. Exxon also cited the unavailability of crude deliveries that affected refinery throughput.
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Those disruptions could weigh on results even as higher commodity prices support other parts of the business. Exxon estimated that Middle East-related volume disruptions could reduce earnings by $500 million to $300 million, while other Middle East impacts could reduce earnings by $800 million to $600 million.
The mixed setup gives investors a reason to watch management’s commentary beyond the earnings-per-share number. The question is whether those disruptions were largely a first-quarter issue or whether production, refining throughput, and physical shipments remain under pressure heading into the second quarter.
Shareholder returns remain central to the story
Exxon enters the report from a position of financial strength. The company reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $6.5 billion, or $1.53 per share, and earnings excluding identified items of $7.3 billion, or $1.71 per share.
The company also returned $9.5 billion to shareholders in the fourth quarter through $4.4 billion of dividends and $5.1 billion of share repurchases. For full-year 2025, Exxon reported earnings of $28.8 billion and distributed $37.2 billion to shareholders, including $17.2 billion of dividends and $20 billion of buybacks.
That shareholder-return profile gives Exxon some room to absorb quarterly volatility, but it also raises the bar for management. Investors will want to see whether cash flow remains strong enough to support dividends, buybacks, capital spending, and project investment while oil markets remain volatile.
The year-over-year comparison also matters. Exxon earned $7.7 billion, or $1.76 per share, in the first quarter of 2025, with $13 billion in operating cash flow and $8.8 billion in free cash flow.
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